From powerful congressman, to intelligent legislator who knew how to come to a compromise, to a minority leader, to a majority leader, to an ineffective majority leader, to a majority leader struggling to hold his caucus together, to the laughing stock of the nation, John Boehner has been on one of the most sorry negative trajectories of any politician within the last century. I am no fan of Speaker Boehner, but any observer of the political scene has to be looking at the Kabuki dance that Mr. Boehner is writhing through, and recognizing that that he does not have the ability, leadership, or courage to pull off the current negotiations and harness the disparate wings of his party.

The negotiations of the past three years have become a national joke. The only comparable strategy that seems to be out there is what I have called the "Lucy Move". For all of us who grew up reading Peanuts comic strips, we remember how important it always was for Charlie Brown to kick the football down the field. He would do almost anything. Step up, Lucy. She would offer to hold the ball so the placekicker could make the kick. Charlie charges, gets to the ball, and Lucy pulls the ball out from under him. But Charlie wants to succeed and tries again and again, but the result is always the same, Lucy pulls the ball out from under him. 

Place the president in the position of Charlie Brown and Boehner in the position of Lucy. We all understand the president's motivation for wanting to kick the ball downfield. That is a strategy that will help the United States win the game. We can even understand the strategy of coming back to the game over and over again. The game is important. Charlie wants to win for the team. He's going to keep fighting. 

But what of Boehner? Pulling the ball out from under the president will not help the team win the game. If anything, why would you prevent the game from moving to a successful conclusion? Could Boehner be intentionally trying to sabotage the discussions? Is he a member of the other team? Of course not. The problem is that John Boehner finds himself in an impossible situation. He leads a republican party that has no real leadership, therefore, no figure to rally the troops to a united vision. The party he leads is therefore fragmenting in front of his eyes.

There is no republican party. That may sound like a heretical statement, but it is, in fact, true. Those that call themselves republicans really represent disparate interest groups, some of whom want to govern, some who want to destroy government. They are a party that is an odd coalition of tea-partiers {who want to see government and taxes disappear}, religious fundamentalists {who are primarily a southern population with social issues at the top of the agenda}, major business interests { whose interests are in maintaining and improving their tax status and destroying the social safety net}, traditional republicans, and external interest groups that have given so much money to the republican party and their candidates that all legislation must be approved by them. 

Thus, Mr. Boehner has to walk a tightrope to maintain his speakership in the house of representatives. The speaker hopes to be reelected on January 3rd. Until then, he has to mollify all these disparate sectors of his party. Thus we see the strategy that has emerged. Feign negotiation, come together just closely enough to give the American people some hope that this long gridlocked nightmare would be over. Then retreat. Add demands from the right. Make certain that those in the fringe groups that make up the republican rank and file are comfortable. Then blame the president for not compromising. 

The ploy has gotten old and most of the country sees it as a signal of Boehner's incompetance, but it may serve it's purpose. Allow us to go over the "fiscal cliff" on New Years. That will allow Boehner to go back to his caucus and let them know that he has stood up for their interests and has not given in to that foreign president Obama. Then get reelected as speaker. Once that occurs, Boehner will feel that he can now negotiate with the president in ernest. The strategy is Machiavellian and not in the interests of this country, but Boehner's "Lucy Move" only makes sense in this context.